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How much economy will lose from coronavirus and what to expect from economic relief package 2.0 The economic impact of the pandemic on India is likely to be around Rs 7-8 trillion with sectors such as trade, textiles, aviation, transport, and MSMEs facing the brunt of the impact.
Reserve Bank of India (the “RBI”) has introduced a number of measures to stimulate lending and improving liquidity, all eyes are now on the Finance Ministry as Indian businesses look for a relief package to help them survive through these difficult times. Lockdown Impact of COVID-19 In its statement released on April 17, 2020, the RBI acknowledged that growth could slow to as much as 1.9%, if not more, in FY2020-21. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (the “IMF”) has projected a global growth rate of (-)3% for 2020. While these projections see India as one of the better performing economies in Asia, the fall in global demand is likely to have a massive impact on Indian exports. Already, the RBI estimates that India has seen an export contraction of about 34% in March 2020. Looking for Loans during Covid Times ? Head on to www.MoneyEstate.in All in all, the economic impact of the pandemic on India is likely to be to the tune of INR7-8 trillion with sectors such as trade, textiles, aviation, transport, tourism, hotels, wholesale and retail trading and MSMEs facing the brunt of the impact. At the same time, the financial sector, especially NBFCs and MFIs, and the real estate sector are also likely to suffer during this period due to a lack of consumer demand. The fall in revenues and incomes will cause a substantial fall in revenue collection by the government, which in turn, will affect the fiscal deficit in the short to medium term. Measures introduced by the RBI and the Indian government RBI has introduced several long-term repo operation (“LTRO”) packages, including the LTRO of INR500 billion announced on April 17, 2020 which specifically targeted the financial sector (NBFCs and MFIs). LTROs are essentially long-term (one (1) to three (3) year term) loans given by the RBI to banks at low interest rates. The objective of this measure is to incentivize the banks to undertake onward lending at correspondingly low interest rates. NBFCs had been requesting the RBI for direct loans to ease liquidity, however, the RBI has chosen to proceed with indirect loans through banks. It remains to be seen whether the banks efficiently pass on the benefits to NBFCs and MFIs, who in turn, will have to strive to pass on the benefits to their borrowers. RBI also announced a cash infusion of INR500 billion for the All India Financial Institutions, namely, the NABARD (National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development), the SIDBI (Small Industries Development Bank of India) and the NHB (National Housing Bank) which play an important role in meeting the long-term funding requirements of agriculture and the rural sector, small industries, housing finance companies, NBFCs and MFIs. The RBI recognized that these institutions were not able to raise sufficient funds from the market and therefore, injected much needed capital in a bid to support the rural economy. Looking for Loans during Covid Times ? Head on to www.MoneyEstate.in Separately, in its guidelines for the extended lockdown, the central government announced that agricultural and related activities will be permitted to remain fully operational in zones not demarcated as containment zones. As a significant portion of India’s population derives its income from agricultural and allied industries, this measure is likely to alleviate the financial impact on this sector and consequently, reduce the need for fiscal stimulus in a large chunk of the Indian economy. Expectations from the Finance Ministry The measures introduced by the RBI are unlikely to provide a sufficient stimulus as banks and other lenders are increasingly adopting risk-averse strategies. In fact, the RBI governor has stated that there is a liquidity surplus in the economy and that on April 15 alone, the RBI absorbed INR6.9 trillion from banks as surplus under the reverse repo operations. Therefore, it is clear that the RBI envisions sufficient liquidity in the market and that the benefits provided by the RBI are not being efficiently passed on by banks and other lenders to consumers. Given this prevalent reluctance, the RBI will likely need to introduce detailed procedural guidelines to incentivize banks to pump in the additional funds into the market. Looking for Loans during Covid Times ? Head on to www.MoneyEstate.in In the current global scenario, India will need to undertake a shift in its monetary policy towards fiscal stimulus to ensure that the economy is able to rebound from the fiscal loss suffered in the short term. If the IMF predicted V-curve recovery is to be achieved, the government must stimulate consumer spending and foreign investment in the medium term. So far, Indian businesses have diligently complied with the orders of the Indian government to stay at home and its advisories to avoid laying-off employees. Now, it is time for the Finance Ministry to step up and provide the fiscal relief needed by Indian businesses to ensure that they are able to sustain through the effects of the lockdown. Read more at : https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/how-much-economy-will-lose-from-coronavirus-and-what-to-expect-from-economic-relief-package-2-0-by-nirmala-sitharaman/1947511/ Lockdown to inflict $320 billion loss on Indian economy The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to hit Indian economy with about $320 billion in terms of daily gross domestic product (GDP) loss after 40 days of lockdown, said a report. The micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector, often called the backbone of the Indian economy, has had to shut small-scale factories, and is working with minimal workforce.The COVID-19 pandemic has decimated the MSME revenue even more, said the “COVID-19 Startup Impact Report — Threats & Opportunities For The Indian Economy”. Looking for Loans during Covid Times ? Head on to www.MoneyEstate.in For some sectors, this pandemic has sounded the death knell, but the supply chain disruption has impacted manufacturing everywhere. Read more at : https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2020/may/03/40-day-lockdown-to-inflict-usd-320-billion-loss-on-indian-economy-report-2138664.html
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